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FX Asia: Taiwan Dollar Sets Sight On New 2006 Low

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FX Asia: Taiwan Dollar Sets Sight On New 2006 Low

The New Taiwan dollar is increasingly favored in carry trades as low interest rates and heightening political tensions with the Chinese mainland make the currency a cheap funding vehicle for purchases of higher-yielding units such as the Thai baht.

Although the Taiwan dollar is recovering from falls earlier in the week thanks to a resurgent Japanese yen, its longer-term outlook remains grim.

Technical charts, in particular, are pointing to fresh lows ahead for the currency, already facing pressure ahead of Taiwan’s Peace Memorial Day on Feb. 28 when some are expecting President Chen Shui-bian to announce the scrapping of guidelines on reunification with the mainland. HSBC, for one, likes funding intra-regional trades into the South Korean won, the Thai baht, the Indonesian rupiah or the Philippine peso, with the Taiwan dollar.

“The advantage of using the TWD for carry trades is that it is not exposed, in our view at least, to the dramatic positioning adjustments which we know can cause the yen carry trade problems,” HSBC said in a recent research report.

More: sg.biz.yahoo.com

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